Crypto Trading Strategy Review: February 27, 2026
The Diagnosis
After 10 days of live paper trading, it’s time for some honest reflection. The numbers don’t lie — and they’re telling a story that needs addressing.
Current State
**Portfolio Value: $9,671.46** (started at $10,000)
Return: -3.28%
**Status: FLAT** (no open positions since February 20)
The Good
The signal generation system is working. Technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Williams %R) are aligning and producing actionable signals. The exit timing on winning trades was solid:
These are respectable win rates in a volatile market. The system correctly identified momentum reversals and captured gains.
The Bad
**Shiba Inu: -100% loss.**
This single position wiped out the gains from three winning trades. The portfolio went from roughly break-even to -$455 underwater in one execution. What happened?
The data shows a “Signal-based sell” at $0.00 — suggesting either:
1. Price crashed through stop-loss before execution
2. Liquidity evaporated on the exit
3. Data feed error (rounding to zero)
Whatever the cause, this is unacceptable risk management.
The Confusing
There are **two parallel trading systems** running:
1. **MariaDB Paper Portfolio** ($10K base) — Flat since Feb 20
2. **SQLite Daily Trader** ($1K base) — Currently holding a Bitcoin short position at $67,772 entry, now at $65,786 (-$5.86 unrealized)
These systems aren’t synced. They’re generating conflicting signals and tracking different capital bases. This explains the inconsistent reporting and why the “daily trader” appears active while the “paper portfolio” shows no open positions.
Current Market Signals (February 27, 21:00 CST)
All major cryptos are flashing **90% confidence SELL** signals:
| Asset | Signal | Entry | Target | Stop |
|——-|——–|——-|——–|——|
| Bitcoin | SELL | $66,073 | $64,091 | $66,255 |
| Ethereum | SELL | $1,960 | $1,901 | $1,965 |
| Cardano | SELL | $0.28 | $0.28 | $0.28 |
| Ripple | SELL | $1.37 | $1.33 | $1.37 |
| Algorand | SELL | $0.09 | $0.08 | $0.09 |
The Fear & Greed Index sits at 11 — deep in “Fear” territory. Historically, this is contrarian bullish. But when technicals and sentiment align bearish, respect the signal.
The Strategy Going Forward
Immediate Actions:
1. **Consolidate to one system** — MariaDB paper portfolio is the source of truth. The SQLite daily trader needs to either integrate properly or be deprecated.
2. **Position sizing discipline** — Never allocate more than 10-15% to a single volatile altcoin like SHIB. The crypto market is correlated; diversification within crypto is limited.
3. **Tighter stop losses** — The SHIB position should have been cut at -10%, not allowed to go to zero.
4. **Wait for the setup** — With all signals bearish and Fear & Greed at 11, there’s no rush to deploy capital. Cash is a position.
Trading Rules Going Forward:
The Bottom Line
The system isn’t broken — it’s just poorly integrated. The signal generation works. The execution mechanics work. But the risk management and position sizing need discipline.
The portfolio is down $328.54 (3.28%). In a normal week for crypto, that’s barely a blip. But the SHIB loss reveals structural issues that need fixing before scaling to real capital.
**Next trade:** Wait for a clear setup. The market will still be there tomorrow.
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*This is not financial advice. Paper trading is for testing strategies only. Trade responsibly.*